Bay Area farmers face uncertainty as tariff risk looms

GILROY, Calif - One of the major industries targeted by President Trump's tariffs is agriculture.

Bay Area agriculture

Local perspective:

In the Bay Area, agriculture may be overshadowed by technology, finance, and tourism, but it is a key industry in several local counties.

Napa, Sonoma, and Solano counties have the largest agricultural sectors in the Bay Area, with Santa Clara County ranking fourth.

Local farmers and growers say tariffs cut both ways: they can increase expenses but also potentially boost their share of the domestic market.

The southern portion of Santa Clara County is home to dozens of rural farms, with nursery crops, mushrooms, and lettuce topping the list of products grown and exported. While eclipsed by the tech industry, agriculture also provides jobs and tax revenue to the county.

"There are so many jobs connected to this, even from the fruit stands themselves or the people in the grocery stores who have the section, there is a demand for local product," said Tim Chiala, the president of the Santa Clara County Farm Bureau.

Featured

article

Trump brushes off recession concerns

In an interview Sunday, the president dismissed worries about the economy.

Tariffs on Mexico and Canada

Why you should care:

Chiala’s family-owned company also grows mushrooms in Gilroy, which is entirely dependent on peat moss imported from Canada as part of the growing process. If peat moss prices rise due to tariffs, it could have an impact.

"I imagine if the tariffs on Mexico and Canada stayed there, they would probably reciprocate in some form. We would have to look at how it was," Chiala said.

Broccoli is one commodity that is currently about 25% less expensive if sourced from Mexico. However, with the potential for tariffs looming, growers said they are beginning to receive more inquiries from domestic buyers, making it worth rotating the crop now more so than in recent years.

"So they are seeing it as an opportunity to bring in some crops that we have lost. Broccoli is a great rotation for the farm industry, but the market has been depressed because there are so many suppliers out of Mexico that do it," Chiala said.

Supervisor Sylvia Arenas, who represents the south county agricultural communities, is concerned about any possible economic impacts of tariffs, including jobs.

"We need stability for our farmers because as you know they plant in one season and the crops grow in another," Arenas said.

If tariffs raise the cost of agricultural products, it could have a negative impact.

Featured

article

What is a recession? Here's the criteria and where the U.S. stands

Thanks to reporting lags and number revisions, recessions typically aren’t declared until well after they have begun.

"You look at your overhead, you look at what you can cut, and sometimes it comes to jobs—the people who are actually producing. Maybe you are not going to produce as many products as you normally do," Arenas said
.
According to 2022 statistics from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Napa County leads the region with a nearly $900 million agricultural sector, followed by Sonoma County, Solano County, and Santa Clara County at $360 million.

Santa Clara County independently reports that its 2023 agricultural production increased to $371,525,000.

"It is a short-term pain right now; we are hoping for a long-term benefit," Chiala said. "In the end, the consumers may also have to pay," Arenas said.

At the moment, the actual impact of potential tariffs on the local agricultural industry is mostly an educated guess because some of the major tariffs targeting Canada and Mexico have again been delayed by the Trump administration until April 2.

Reciprocal tariffs from China on some U.S. agricultural products, ranging from 10% to 15%, took effect on Monday.