2 consecutive months of fewer jobs in California – an omen of recession? What experts say

SAN FRANCISCO - Last week's California employment figures may be signaling a tectonic shift in the state's four-year gains in jobs. The last two months are an omen, not a guarantee, of a shrinking California economy. 

"Since 2020 up through the end of 2024, we've had consistent monthly job growth," said employment lawyer and former EDD Director Michael Bernick.

He said it could be a possible reversal of fortunes for California's workforce. 

"Today's numbers, combined with the revised January numbers, for the first time, show two consecutive months of job losses," he said. "The revised number show over 20,000 jobs lost in January, Today's numbers show 7,500 jobs lost."

Why the shift? 

"I think there's no question, it's the tariffs," Bernick said.

Tariffs bring great uncertainty to businesses across the nation.  

Expert perspective

What they're saying:

"You talk to any California employers, major employers. It's not so much the tariffs themselves so far, as the uncertainty," he said. "It's that uncertainty that's having the impact, halting hiring decisions and even in some cases, layoffs."

Though many employers support many Trump policies, hiring freezes do not back fill when people quit, retire or get laid off, hence job losses. 

Uncertainty also makes investors wary as well. 

"We see the same thing with the stock market in the last couple weeks," said Bernick

Car dealers and repair shops, a major component of U.S. employment and inflation, are also rattled. 

Half of all cars and car parts are imported. 

"None of us are 100 percent sure what it's going to mean, but it can't mean that they're going to be less expensive,"said Arizona Ford dealer Tim Hovik. "And based on the cost, I don't think it's a good scenario for consumers or the auto industry."

Consumer confidence has also taken another big dive.