California sees population gain, is 'exodus' over?
OAKLAND, Calif. - New figures are pushing back on the widely circulated narrative of a mass California exodus, showing the state's population is making a rebound toward pre-pandemic levels.
The U.S. Census Bureau said California's population increased by 232,570 to 39,431,263 from July 2023 to July 2024. That’s a rise of almost 0.6%. The total net migration rate also grew in the state, which means more people came into California than emigrated.
It was also the second year in a row that the population rose instead of shrunk. The previous one-year period saw a slight increase of 56,279 or 0.1%.
And while the gains indicated the population was moving toward pre-pandemic levels, policy experts cautioned that the increase was relatively small and didn't necessarily suggest a turn in the tide.
"California is growing again, but we’re still losing current residents to other states," said Eric McGhee, policy director and senior fellow for the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC).
McGhee explained that much of the return to a population growth in California was driven by an increase in immigration and a "smaller domestic outflow," both of which were near pre-pandemic levels.
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The growth comes after California’s streak of adding to its population ended in 2020, which marked the first time ever the Golden State saw its population shrink-- a decline that led to the loss of a congressional seat which dropped its delegation to 52 members.
In turn, Texas gained two seats while Florida gained one. Both states have continued to see their populations rise.
McGhee suggested that California would need to see more "substantial growth" to avoid losing more congressional seats in 2030, when census data is next used to determine how the U.S. House of Representatives' 435 seats are allocated.
He said preventing the loss of more seats will require the state to return to population growth levels seen 15 to 20 years ago.
And to achieve that, California will need to find solutions to its vexing housing problem and other issues that have prompted people to leave the state.
Census figures showed that from 2019 to 2023, the Golden State had among the largest increases in home prices and had some of the highest median rent prices.
"For more robust growth," McGhee explained, "we’ll need to address the affordability crisis that pushes so many Californians away."