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OAKLAND, Calif. - Way back when, presidential races would be called a couple of hours after dinner and voters would have almost immediate gratification about who won which seats on Election Day.
That's not the case anymore, explains Robb Korinke, a veteran political consultant and editor at California Target Book.
"Yeah," he said. "Election night parties used to be fun. I don't think that we're going to get quite that satisfaction on election night."
What complicates matters is that there are so many different kinds of ways to vote: Voters who have voted up until Tuesday, mail-in ballots, and in-person ballots, which could total 8 million votes.
"But if we're on pace with the last couple of presidential elections, we've got 10 million more votes to go," he said. "Some of those will be divulged this evening. But likely we're in for a long, strange trip in the next few weeks."
Korinke said he thinks it will be several days, likely Wednesday or Thursday, until California even knows how many ballots are left. The Secretary of State and individual counties will give regular updates on how many ballots they still have to count.
"And it could go all the way to Thanksgiving," Korinke said.
Dec. 5 is the deadline for county elections officials to certify election results.
Korinke explained that there have been a lot of changes in how Californians vote and how many Californians are eligible and registered to vote.
In 2018, the Motor Voter program was launched at the DMV, meaning that eligible customers would be automatically registered to vote unless they opted out.
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Anti-incumbent sentiment in San Francisco, Oakland races
Two professors say there's an anti-incumbent sentiments in both the San Francisco and Oakland races.
Korinke said four million more voters have been added to the state rolls since that time.
And then, with COVID in 2020, more and more voters started using mail-in ballots instead of going in person to vote.
Nearly 90% of votes cast in the 2022 general election were mail-in ballots. In this year's primary, the percentage was just as high, notes LAist.
And voting by mail requires signature matching. When the one received doesn't match the one on file, county registrars must contact the voter — and give them the chance to correct it.
"All of those contributed to changing voting patterns, and they're a little bit different from what we had expected before," he said. "And even the last few years, the national political narrative have kind of changed how different groups of voters vote prior to and on Election Day."
In addition, there is typically a major turnout for presidential elections, which may translate into 18 million votes – a significant jump from several years ago, Korinke pointed out.
In terms of Bay Area races, the three hot contests are who will become mayor in San Francisco, and whether Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao and Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price will be recalled.
David McCuan, a Sonoma State political science professor, and Brandice Canes-Wrone, a senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, both said that this year, there's an anti-incumbent sentiment among voters, which doesn't bode well for San Francisco Mayor London Breed, Thao or Price.
But as for when these local races might be counted, especially the two recalls, both professors thought the results should be relatively fast.
"We'll know pretty soon," McCuan said. "Like tonight."