Extreme weather, flooding influencing where millions in US decide to live, research shows
The Los Angeles River swells with rushing water near Griffith Park in Los Angeles, California on August 20, 2023. (Photo by ROBYN BECK/AFP via Getty Images)
Research from First Street Foundation shows that millions of people in the U.S. are considering extreme weather events and disasters when trying to decide on a place to live as new climate migration patterns emerge.
And as another atmospheric river storm is getting set to slam California and the West, FOX Weather spoke with the head of Climate Implications at First Street Foundation about their research that shows how things like flooding are influencing people’s decisions on where to move and live.
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"This new research shows that when people are made aware of flood risk in their area, they’re actually taking that into consideration when they’re thinking about moving," Dr. Jeremy Porter said. "So, people have this local knowledge. They know what areas flood when there’s a heavy downpour."
Because of that, he said, people are telling themselves that they don’t want to experience that, so they aren’t moving there.
"We’re really seeing it across the country, and we’re really seeing it within city movies," Porter continued.
Infrastructure being overwhelmed by rushing water
As people choose different areas to move to and try to get away from flooding hazards, storms with relentless precipitation are continuing to impact several U.S. regions, and it’s taking its toll on infrastructure.
"The weather events that you’re covering, in particular the atmospheric rivers, the extreme precipitation events in Florida, in the Northeast and in the Midwest, that’s really where we’re seeing the biggest impacts," Porter said.
He said that infrastructure itself is built to handle a certain amount of precipitation when it occurs.
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"The changes in the environment recently, the way it's really manifesting itself, is that we’re seeing these extreme precipitation events happening more often," he continued. "And when they happen more often, they’re dropping more water so that the stormwater management systems, in particular, just aren’t designed to carry the capacity of water that we’re seeing."
For example, Porter said that the atmospheric river storms that have been slamming the West Coast, the catastrophic flooding events that occurred in Vermont and the Northeast last summer, and copious amounts of rain in Florida have shown that there needs to be a new investment in the country’s stormwater management systems to be able to withstand some of the extreme weather events.
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How can the US mitigate the flooding risks?
As storms grow stronger and hold more moisture and precipitation than average, flooding events are becoming more and more extreme.
So, what can be done as individuals or communities to help alleviate some of the risks? A lot of it has to do with having the right data and understanding of these events, Porter said.
Downscaled global climate models can be a huge help, he said.
"They tell us where precipitation is likely to increase, where we’re likely to see more drought conditions," Porter said. "We can take all of that kind of information and couple it with things like sea-level rise expectations, and we can use that to more efficiently allocate resources at the community level for things like pumps, seawalls, for bigger detention basins and stormwater management systems."
Planning is key, he said.
"Planning for really what we’re expecting to see into the future and maybe add a little contingency on that, understanding that there’s a lot of uncertainty around those expectations and planning for kind of worst-case scenario is probably the best way to go," Porter said.
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What could the next 10, 15 or 20 years look like?
So, will people be flocking to new areas of the country over the next few decades? Porter says as of now, they aren’t seeing that in the research.
"We’re really not seeing large macroscale migration patterns," he said. "We’re not seeing people, you know, flock out of the South and move to the Great Lakes region simply because of the economic opportunities that exist in the South."
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Instead, people are just moving to higher ground.
"What we’re really seeing is that within cities like Houston, in Miami, in (Los Angeles), people are moving to places that are on higher ground," he said. "People are starting to take that into account in the real-estate market when people are looking to move, and I think we’ll see that continue into the future."