Legendary presidential predictor Allan Lichtman makes his 2024 White House pick

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Renowned presidential election predictor Allan Lichtman announced his pick for the next U.S. president. 

OAKLAND, Calif. - The man often referred to as the "Nostradamus of presidential election predictions" has spoken.

American University historian Allan Lichtman has a remarkable track record, accurately calling nearly every U.S. presidential election since 1984, including finding himself among a minority in 2016 when he forecast Donald Trump’s presidential election win.

On Tuesday, Lichtman revealed who he believes will be the next person to occupy the White House. 

"The democrats will hold on the White House, and Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States," the professor announced definitively in a New York Times Opinion piece that included video of Lichtman making his prediction and laying out his supporting arguments. 

Lichtman bases his predictions on what he calls "13 big picture true or false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House party."

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The historian called the 13 keys "the constant northern star of political prediction." 

Here's a look at Lichtman’s verdict on each predictor.  A "false" determination is a win for Trump. And a "true" ruling is a win for Harris. 

1. Midterm gains: False-The Democrats lost House seats in 2022.
2. Incumbency: False- because if Joe Biden had stayed in the race, he would have been the incumbent, Lichtman explained.
3. Primary contest: True-"The democrats finally got smart and united overwhelmingly behind Vice President Harris," Lichtman said.
4. Third party challenger: True- With Robert Kennedy Jr. dropping out of the race, Lichtman said he left no major third party in the race.
5. Short-term economy: True- "The economy is not in recession," Lichtman noted.
6. Long-term economy: True-"Growth during the Biden term is far ahead of growth during the pervious two terms," Lichtman said.
7. Policy change: True- Lichtman gave examples, including rejoining the Paris Accords on climate change in 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.
8. Sustained social unrest: True- Lichtman said while there have been "sporadic protests," the unrest does not fall under the category of being sustained and significant enough to make this a false statement.
9. White House scandal: True- Lichtman said Republicans have failed to come up with a scandal to pin on President Biden, noting, "There has to be at least some bipartisan recognition of actual corruption that implicates the president himself and not a family member."
10. Incumbent charisma: False- "You have to be once in a generational, broadly inspirational candidate," Lichtman said, adding, "Harris has not met that standard."
11. Challenger charisma: True- Lichtman said that while some consider Trump to be ultra charismatic and godlike, "he only appeals to a narrow base."

As for his final two keys: 12. Foreign policy failure and 13. Foreign policy success, Lichtman said this area is "tricky" and could flip either way at any moment given the volatile situation in the Israel-Hamas war.

Lichtman stressed his five negative or false keys are not enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House. 

And while the 77-year-old academician stood by his analysis with confidence, he also noted that in the end, "The outcome is up to you," and he challenged, "So get out and vote."