Prop 1 still too close to call, despite opposing group conceding
A group opposing Proposition 1 is going back on their concession, after announcing yesterday the measure was likely going to pass.
Californians Against Prop 1 issued a statement Tuesday saying, "We almost took down the bear, but it looks like we will fall short. Today, as the principal opponents of Proposition 1, we concede that it is almost certain to pass."
Prop 1, backed by Governor Gavin Newsom, is aimed at tackling homelessness and mental health.
The highly anticipated results are still too close to call, with less than 1% margin.
Early on, Newsom said it was going to pass with flying colors, but voter turnout was low and voters are evenly split on this proposition.
There is not one organized opposition group, so while Californians Against Prop 1 did concede, it can’t speak for everyone who opposes the proposition.
"It was still close, and technically, it was still too close to call. But we saw, you know, looking at all the models that we had to figure out where it was going. The trend was clearly going away from us," said Paul Simmons, a mental health advocate who is part of Californians Against Prop 1.
Simmons said they put out the announcement to beat Governor Newsom to the punch if he claimed victory.
However, just one day since the concession, with more than 85% of the votes in, the race is still close.
Other groups, like local opposing organization Alameda County Taxpayers Association (ACTA), and proponent non-profit Veteran Mentor Project, think organizers at Californians Against Prop 1 spoke too soon.
"It’s premature to say there’s an outcome in this election to call this election already. It’s been a seesaw election in terms of the results," said Jason Bezis, an attorney for ACTA.
In agreement, President of Veteran Mentor Project James Espinoza said, "I think it's too close to call, but I’m leaning toward it's going to pass."
There are less than 800,000 votes left uncounted, with about 7.5 million total votes in one of the lowest turnouts in state history.
In early March, Newsom touted the expected success of Prop 1, saying the goal is to address homelessness and fix the broken mental health system by authorizing $6.4 billion in bonds to move people off the street and into permanent housing.
"This was bipartisan in the senate," he said at a press conference.
However, the results reveal mental health advocates are split, and so are voters on either side of the aisle.
"This should be passing it better than 52%," said David McCuan, political science professor at Sonoma State University. "It's not going to get there even with those late votes."
"I’m actually glad to see the system working, and as long as the election system runs its course, my hope is that this bill passes," said Espinoza, who said although he understands no one likes taxes, the bill will help support veterans.
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Proponents say it expands community-based services and puts unhoused people in beds, addressing the shortage of mental health workers. They say it will help homeless veterans and won’t raise taxes.
"[The opposition] is our fellow community members," said Espinoza. "I hope in the long run that they will benefit from this change, just as well as proponents for the bill."
Opponents say it’s too expensive and it disrupts existing mental health programs already in place.
"We're going to continue fighting the fight against some of the things that are included in proposition one," said Simmons, who said Newsom is going to "throw [homeless] people in jail," instead of helping them.
"There was not really any funded opposition to this measure. There were about 26 million dollars spent on the yes side and almost no money spent on the no side so it’s amazing this election is so close right now," said Bezis.
The state of California has until April 12 to certify the results, but it could be called sooner.
The spokesperson from Californians Against Prop 1 said they are not recanting their statement.
We reached out to Governor Newsom’s office for a comment, but did not hear back in time for this report.