Putin averts full-blown mutiny by former ally

OAKLAND, Calif. - Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have avoided a full-blown mutiny, after longtime ally Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenary group of soldiers turned on the Kremlin over the weekend and seized a key military headquarters in Rostov before marching towards Moscow.

The Kremlin announced Monday it will give amnesty to the military group in return for their exile to Belarus.

Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a 5-minute speech at midnight Monday and called organizers of the Wagner group's mutiny "traitors." 

Putin's response came after the blatant challenge to his regime over the weekend. 

Prigozhin had become increasingly critical of the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, accusing Russian leaders of providing insufficient ammunition for the Wagner forces on the front lines, and firing on Wagner troops. He called for an armed rebellion to oust Shoigu and military leaders. 

During a 22-hour insurgency, Prigozhin led his mercenary Wagner group from the battlefields in Ukraine to Russia's military headquarters in Rostov, and then moved towards Moscow Saturday.
Russian media reported that at least 15 people were killed when the Wagner forces shot down military helicopters and a communications plane. Prigozhin said the aircraft were bombing his convoys.

"The goal was to prevent the destruction of Wagner and to hold to account those who, with their unprofessional actions made a huge amount of mistakes during the special military operation," said Prigozhin during an 11-minute audio statement on social media.

The Kremlin said it had reached a deal with Prigozhin and his soldiers, who will go into exile in Belarus in exchange for amnesty.

Daniel Sargent, a U.C. Berkeley associate professor of history and public policy and co-director of the Institute of International Studies, says Prigozhin likely will be safeguarding his own security to avoid any assassination attempts.

"Prigozhin and Putin go back a long way they have, you know, deep roots in St. Petersburg," said Sargent, "This is not a liberal critic of the war, this is somebody who understands, you know, the political utility of violence. This is somebody who is not going to trust any reassurances that Putin offers him."

Sargent says Prigozhin's bold, high-profile opposition to Putin's nationalistic push for the war threatens to undermine Putin's regime.

"Prigozhin was very clear in his declaration that Putin's invasion had not been justified by any Ukrainian threat to Russia," said Sargent.

As the war against Ukraine drags on and casualties mount, Sargent says Putin is facing increasing unrest among the Russian people.

"The war, as it continues is touching a larger and larger segment of Russian society," said Sargent, "I read 20% of Russians know somebody personally who has died in the line of service."

President Biden and his administration told allies and Russian diplomats Monday that the U.S. and NATO had no part in the Wagner uprising.

"They are listed as a transnational criminal organization. We have sanctioned them," said John Kirby, National Security Council spokesperson.

MORE: KTVU coverage of the Russian invasion of Ukraine 

"We gave Putin no excuse to blame this on the West, to blame this on NATO. We made clear that we were not involved. We had nothing to do with it. This is part of a struggle within Russian system," said President Biden.

Russia's foreign minister said special services are investigating whether Western countries were involved in the rebellion.

Sargent notes that Putin has mentioned Russia's nuclear capabilities multiple times during the war with Ukraine, but if Russia fractures, the fear is the nuclear threat could become even more of a danger.

"The prospects of a significant fragmentation of political authority in Russia for U.S, national security for the security of the global nuclear order, for the security of Europe in the world are really quite, quite terrifying to contemplate," said Sargent.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, meantime, visited the front lines of Ukraine's recent offensive to retake land and hopes to capitalize on the chaos in Russia.

The Pentagon is expected to announce and additional $500 million in military aid to Ukraine Tuesday.