2024 Election: Several California ballot measures buck historical trends

OAKLAND, Calif. - Early voting has begun across California, and in addition to the presidential election and numerous local races, Californians will weigh in on 10 statewide propositions.

The ballot includes proposals on topics ranging from wildfire prevention funding to expanding rent control protections and determining whether incarcerated individuals should be required to work. With only eight days left before the election, a survey by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) offers a glimpse into voter sentiments.

California voters identified economic issues – like the cost of living and housing – and public safety as their top concerns this year.

Proposition 36: Criminal Justice Reform 

San Jose State University political science professor Melinda Jackson noted that two propositions on the ballot address criminal justice. Proposition 36, which has strong support, would increase penalties for certain theft and drug-related crimes. A recent PPIC poll shows 73% of voters in favor, with 25% opposed.

David McCuan, politicals science professor at Sonoma State University, observed a noticeable rejection of criminal justice reform programs among a majority of California voters. 

"California voters don’t want to pay for career incarceration, but they’re frustrated by what’s happening, and there’s a backlash," he said.

Read more: 2024 Election

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• California Senate Race: Where Adam Schiff and Steve Garvey stand on crime, homelessness
• A closer look at Oakland, San Francisco propositions and measures

Proposition 6: Prison Labor 

Currently, the state constitution permits jails and prisons to require incarcerated individuals to work. Proposition 6 would end that requirement, though the PPIC poll reveals 41% of voters support the change, while 56% prefer to keep the system as is.

Proposition 33: Rent Control Expansion 

Proposition 33 would allow cities to implement their own rent control measures rather than relying on statewide restrictions set decades ago. Jackson points out that when propositions are confusing, voters often choose to reject them. With substantial campaign spending from landlord and apartment associations opposing the measure, support has dropped recently, with 41% in favor and 54% opposed.

McCuan commented, "We know voters are frustrated and upset."

Bond Measures for School Facilities and Wildfire Prevention

Despite voter skepticism on many issues, polls show strong support for two bond measures to finance significant projects. Proposition 2 would allow the state to issue $10 billion in bonds to upgrade public schools, and Proposition 4 would authorize $10 billion for clean water and wildfire prevention. Both measures currently hold over 50% support.

According to McCuan, "This cycle we're seeing we're seeing something different... measures being supported by voters at a much higher rate."

Historically, California voters approve about one in three ballot propositions. This election cycle may see different trends. According to the Public Policy Institute's polling, about half of the ten measures on the ballot appear to win over a majority of voters' approval.