Commuting could be far worse in Bay Area after crisis lifts, study finds

SAN FRANCISCO - Drivers could see miserable commutes when they return to work across the Bay Area after the coronavirus outbreak clears and the stay-at-home order lifts, a new study predicts. 

The Vanderbilt University study says it all comes down to how many people make the switch from mass transit to driving their own cars. The more people who skip BART and other trains and buses, the longer the commute will become for motorists. 

The study says in the Bay Area, if just one in four regular transit users decides to switch to driving, it will add 20 minutes to the average round trip to San Francisco for commuters. If 75% of those workers opt to drive, commute times could more than double, the Vanderbilt researchers concluded. 

"The Vanderbilt study does a really really good job of of illustrating a worst case scenario,' said John Goodwin from the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, which helps coordinate public transit. "I feel confidant that we in the Bay Area will avoid that worst case scenario. But, it's going to be difficult."

But, keep in mind, there are a lot of factors the study doesn't take into account.

Commuting during the pandemic has been relatively easy for those who still have to work, with most confined to their homes by public health orders. Now, the study is looking at what will happen if commuters are reluctant to take mass transit when they return to work.

The bottom line is the more commuters who opt to drive, the longer the commute. 

"I think it's something to be wary about," said Jim Wunderman from the Bay Area Council, a group that brings together business and public leaders. "Because we could go from traffic heaven to traffic hell almost overnight."

 Wunderman said his organization is already looking at the issue.

"At the Bay Area Council we have about we have about 350 members in every sector," said Wunderman. "We're working with our companies to talk about their plans and look at what the county rules are, what the state rules are."

But, the MTC is saying while the Vanderbilt study raises significant issues it doesn't take into account some important factors, such as higher unemployment rates following the pandemic reducing the overall number of people commuting,. It also doesn't consider the fact that many workers and employers may opt to make working from home a permanent fixture.

"Are people still going to be working from home? Maybe not every day, maybe they're working at home one or two days a week," said Goodwin. "That take some pressure off of the roadways."

 Transit agencies are working to prepare for the return of commuters.

BART said it is developing plans for increased cleaning and ways to make mass transit more appealing to commuters. Including keeping face mask requirements in place, making hand sanitizer available throughout the system and system wide changes including running longer trains to avoid crowding.