Daniel Lurie surges in new polls in San Francisco mayor's race

As the November election nears, the latest polls show a shift in the front-runners. 

Philanthropist and nonprofit founder Daniel Lurie is surging ahead of his competitors.

The San Francisco Chronicle, which has endorsed Lurie, commissioned a poll that found that roughly 23% of likely voters would choose Lurie as their first choice for mayor, just 1% shy of those who said the same for Mayor London Breed.

But after all the votes are distributed in the city's ranked choice system, Lurie edges out Breed 56% to 44%.

San Francisco native Taylor Gallanter said Lurie's targeted ads against former interim Mayor Mark Farrell convinced her to support him in the last few weeks.

She owns Beau SF salon on Spruce Street in Presidio Heights.  

"I think it's the way he supports small business, specifically the merchants. He's trying to remove a lot of the red tape, he's actually bringing new business into the city for us like the work he did for Super Bowl 50 and getting that and then securing Super Bowl 60, the NBA All-Star games."

Gallanter has been impressed by Lurie's community engagement, saying he's visited merchants in the area on several occasions.    

"He doesn't need a job, so he's doing this because he feels he has something to offer, and I agree," said Lurie supporter Amy Plevin.

Grow SF, a group that aims to offer a moderate perspective on city politics, found in its polling that the race is still a statistical tie. But Breed ekes out a win with just 51% in the final round of ranked choice voting, but that's still within the margin of error.

"She has the most experience and I think there are a lot of challenges ahead of the city and I'd like somebody who knows how the city works," said Breed Supporter Beth Myler. 

"I've always liked how she really supported the community, and really gave her best effort to really try to help the people and I always noticed that, and the pandemic was just a really hard time," said longtime San Francisco resident Michelle Furlong. "I thought she did really well trying to support our police department, and trying to keep our city clean."

St. Mary's College of California Provost Corey Cook said it's critical for voters to also decide their second or third place picks in this highly competitive election, which uses the ranked-choice voting system

"What we've seen is somebody who's running as an outsider to City Hall has begun to gain momentum and the mayor has begun to gain momentum as a ‘change’ candidate, and that's left little room for the more progressive candidates on the mayor's left, and for Mark Farrell, who I think a lot of folks thought was going to be the strongest competitor in this race."

Experts say it will be the undecided voters who ultimately determine who the next mayor is, since the race is so tight. 

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