Police chief data shows violent crime drops in Oakland, San Francisco

OAKLAND, Calif. - Despite doom loop narratives that persist, a new national survey of police chiefs is showing some heartening news in America's biggest cities.

Major metropolitan areas, including Oakland and San Francisco, are experiencing an overall 7% drop in violent crime this year.

The Major Cities Chiefs Association’s midyear Violent Crime Report compares preliminary data collected in the first six months of 2023 and 2024 for reported violent crimes — homicide, rape, robbery and aggravated assault — in the largest cities nationwide. A total of 69 cities participated in the survey. 

The survey did not explore why crime categories were up or down; it's just five pages of numerical data.

But the numbers do bolster what Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao and San Francisco Mayor London Breed have been saying for the last few months. 

Thao faces a recall election in November, in large part, because her critics say she is to blame for failed crime policies. Last week, the police union again called for her resignation. 

"It's unfortunate that the POA is obviously playing politics," Thao said in a video response to the union. "Right now, during this very sensitive time, we need to come together. We see that what we are working on in terms of the comprehensive approach for public safety is working." 

She added that her budget prioritized public safety, funded new police academies, and saved 80 police jobs.

Breed has been saying since January that crime is down in San Francisco, crediting the city's collaboration with state and federal partners, and a district attorney's office that holds criminals accountable once they're arrested. 

"Every arrow is pointing down," Breed said this spring. "Whether it's burglaries, car break-ins, you name it, rapes. Anything that's happening in a major city like San Francisco, it's been incredible."

In the Bay Area, only San Jose, showed a rise in two of the four violent crime categories: homicide and aggravated assault. 

Here's a breakdown of the survey: 

Oakland 

In Oakland, the number of reported homicides went from 52 in 2023 to 47 this year, the lowest level since the COVID pandemic – a decrease of nearly 10 percent.

Oakland’s homicide rate per 100,000 people is still far higher than the national rate — 10.77 in the city compared to 0.93 nationally. San Jose and San Francisco were also slightly above the national rate, with homicide rates of 1.55 and 2.10 respectively.

Cases of robbery in Oakland decreased from around 1,600 in 2023 to around 1,350 in 2024, according to the survey, while the number of aggravated assaults dropped by roughly 100, from about 1,600 to 1,500. The most significant change was the robbery rate, decreasing by close to 15 percent.

San Francisco

A decrease in violent crime was also seen in San Francisco, where 17 homicides were reported, cutting the number of killings in the first half of 2023 by more than 30 percent in the city of more than 800,000 residents.  Last year, there were 25 at this time. The city also reported about 200 fewer robberies between this year and last year.

San Jose 

In San Jose, where reported data did not include numbers from June, cases of homicide and aggravated assault increased between last year and this year. The number of homicides slightly increased from 13 last year to 15 this year, according to the survey. Cases of aggravated assault also increased slightly, from 1,327 in 2023 to 1356 in 2024, an increase of just over two percent.

The number of rapes reported in San Jose was down by nearly 55 percent, from 344 to 155.

Sacramento

Sacramento also saw decreases in violent crime. Most notably, reports of aggravated assault in Sacramento decreased from 1,400 in 2023 to 1,200 this year in the same amount of time.