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Wastewater samples suggest omicron surge is peaking: UC Berkeley lab

By
Updated  January 19, 2022 5:26am PST
Coronavirus in California
KTVU FOX 2

Omicron surge could be on the decline this week

BERKELEY, Calif. - A team of researchers at the University of California at Berkeley's Nelson Lab say new data indicates we might be hitting the peak of the omicron surge, based on analysis of the coronavirus SARS-CoV2 levels found in Bay Area wastewater samples.

"Right now, we are either just cresting the omicron peak or in some cases continuing to go up is sort of what it looks like. As has been seen with case data, this peak was a lot higher than delta peak and the previous peaks before that," said assistant research engineer Rose Kantor. 

On Tuesday, she said the levels of the virus in certain parts of the Bay Area seem to be cresting.

"San Francisco, as well as some of the other areas of Contra Costa County and Marin County," she said. "But we think in Alameda and Richmond we might be still seeing an increase." 

Kantor said even with an increase in people using at-home COVID testing, a wastewater analysis can help public health officials get more accurate data.

"People are starting to use at-home tests and I think that's going to become the new norm. But it's not easy or straightforward to report that to a public health agency so a lot of those positive cases are being missed," said Kantor.

At a pop-up testing site in Berkeley, one man says he had COVID19 last year and remembers how it felt.

"Runny nose and I lost taste, diarrhea, and just felt really bad," said Charlie Weng of Berkeley, who was standing in line to be tested.

For some, the highly transmissible omicron variant's surge has made the new year feel like old times.

MORE: CDC encourages N95, KN95 masks to stop COVID-19 spread amid omicron surge

"Most people I know are really cutting back a lot. Going back into lockdown for now to make sure we aren't spreading it to other people," said Mariel Block of Berkeley, "Definitely it's scary to think about long-COVID and having to worry about long-term effects, but also spreading it to vulnerable friends and family members."

Dr. John Swartzberg, a UC Berkeley professor emeritus of infectious diseases and vaccinology at the School of Public Health, said the peak in cases could be in the coming week.

"The numbers are suggesting that we're just about there. So, I think we're probably by the end of this week, maybe early next week, we'll be able to say that we've clearly crested," said Swartzberg.

Nationwide, the number of COVID cases fell to about 700,000 new cases this week. That's down from last week's 1.4 million cases.

In California Tuesday, the 7-day average positivity rate fell slightly to 21.1% with an average of 110,000 new COVID cases per day.

That's 1.8% lower than Monday's 7-day average.

MORE: Place your order for free at-home COVID-19 tests from the federal government

Swartzberg, however, points out that the total case count is still higher than past COVID case surges.

He said it likely won't be until February when hospitals feel some relief.

"Even though the cases are going to be dropped, we're still going to be seeing for 14 days more hospitalizations and for about a month more deaths," said  Swartzberg.

Health experts say even if the surge is easing, people need to keep up their guard.

"We're already seeing reports out of South Africa in the United Kingdom, that people are getting a second episode of COVID. That's in a relatively short period of time," said Swartzberg.

"People are starting to use at-home tests and I think that's going to become the new norm. But it's not easy or straightforward to report that to a public health agency so a lot of those positive cases are being missed," said Kantor.

Jana Katsuyama is a reporter for KTVU.  Email Jana at jana.katsuyama@fox.com and follow her on Twitter @JanaKTVU or Facebook @NewsJana or ktvu.com.